Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Will Consumers create growth?


Excerpt from Money and Markets by Jon Markman

CM analysts note that the New York Fed's Household Debt and Credit Report shows that consumer debt fell at a $72 billion annual rate in the second quarter, following three quarters of modest debt growth. The decline was driven by a whopping $328 billion decline in mortgage debt. The analysts conclude that consumers in the current cycle are reluctant to amass debt and are increasingly sensitive to the cost of credit. As a share of disposable personal income, consumer debt has dropped to 89.7 percent, down from 115 percent just six years ago.

The CM analysts observe that since nominal retail sales in July were flat month over month and real sales (i.e. inflation adjusted) were down 0.1 percent, no one should look to the consumer as the driver of new growth for the U.S. economy. Household spending is being restrained by consumers' reluctance to lower their savings rate and borrow as excessively as they did in the past.

The analysts note that during the last expansion, 2003-07, total consumer debt increased $1.079 trillion per year. So far in this expansion, consumer debt has declined $156 billion per year!

John Hussman: Broken Links: Fed Policy And The Growing Gap Between Wall Street And Main Street | Seeking Alpha

 

John Hussman: Broken Links: Fed Policy And The Growing Gap Between Wall Street And Main Street | Seeking Alpha

Monday, August 25, 2014

!ADRLITOT--Waiting for growth

We all remember "Waiting for Godot"--and we know how that ends.  The new play is "Waiting for Growth"--Green Shoots Bernanke was major actor in Part One: QE, etc.  Now we are in Part TWO and No Recipe Yellin is the major actor.  Don't hold your breathe--we knows how this ends.  The USA has lost more companies than it created since 2008--that will cause slack in labor market.  Also, for every dollar od debt we create 3 cents of growth--this is nothing short of insane.  GL

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Sunday, August 24, 2014

Market Timing Report: Indicators Are Cued Up For A Bear Market - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha

 

Market Timing Report: Indicators Are Cued Up For A Bear Market - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha

What If The Fed Has Created A Bubble? | Seeking Alpha

 

What If The Fed Has Created A Bubble? | Seeking Alpha

That 4% Didn’t Hurt Much | David Stockman's Contra Corner

 

That 4% Didn’t Hurt Much | David Stockman's Contra Corner

Some Fed Presidents Think The FOMC Will Raise Rates In Early 2015; Quotes From Janet Yellen's Jackson Hole Speech | Distressed Volatility

 

Some Fed Presidents Think The FOMC Will Raise Rates In Early 2015; Quotes From Janet Yellen's Jackson Hole Speech | Distressed Volatility

8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way | Seeking Alpha

 

8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way | Seeking Alpha

Pakistan using long range artillery Sunday firing on Indian border posts | InvestmentWatch

 

Pakistan using long range artillery Sunday firing on Indian border posts | InvestmentWatch

Tensions Soar In Ukraine/Russia… Russian Lawmaker: “Thin Line” Keeps Russia, Ukraine From War | InvestmentWatch

 

Tensions Soar In Ukraine/Russia… Russian Lawmaker: “Thin Line” Keeps Russia, Ukraine From War | InvestmentWatch

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

$RUT:$NDX--Which chart below?

Which of the charts below give you any certainty that this current rise in major indexes is healthy?  2000 Russell divided by 100 NDX or 10 DMA put/call or 10 DMA Adv/Dec or 10 DMA hi/lo SPX?  This is not a rise--it's levitation, a miraculous transcendence out of the bowels of tepid technicals-a veritable insight into mass delusion.  The gods must be chuckling over this one as the slaves shout, "Higher, higher, higher!"  GL

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Why The Casino Is Dangerous: There Is Nothing Below | David Stockman's Contra Corner

 

Why The Casino Is Dangerous: There Is Nothing Below | David Stockman's Contra Corner

Friday, August 15, 2014

$INDU--Will sell off continue?

If my count is right, we are ending a little wave 2 counter rally now.  The next plunge down should be steeper than this morning.  Would like to see the DOW take out the low of 16,518.  That would go a long way to establish this downtrend.  GL

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14 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy’s Bubble Of False Prosperity May Be About To Burst

14 Reasons Why The U.S. Economy’s Bubble Of False Prosperity May Be About To Burst

Eurozone banks hold record amounts if sovereign paper | InvestmentWatch

 

Eurozone banks hold record amounts if sovereign paper | InvestmentWatch

CITI: We Are Heading Toward The Last Phase of Credit/Equity Cycle Where Stocks React To The Lack Of Available Credit By Collapsing… Soros’ Bet on a Market Crash – Biggest Ever! | InvestmentWatch

 

CITI: We Are Heading Toward The Last Phase of Credit/Equity Cycle Where Stocks React To The Lack Of Available Credit By Collapsing… Soros’ Bet on a Market Crash – Biggest Ever! | InvestmentWatch

Signs Of An Approaching Bear Market | Seeking Alpha

 

Signs Of An Approaching Bear Market | Seeking Alpha